In October, 1962 it was revealed that the Soviet Union had placed nuclear armed intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) on the island of Cuba, 90 miles off the coast of Florida. These missile installations created a genuine first strike capability for the USSR, threatening the North American continent with the potential of nuclear destruction with little to no warning prior to impact.
One of the stated reasons for the USSR’s aggressive move was that the US had placed 100 nuclear armed IRBMs in Italy and Turkey, putting them within first strike range of Moscow.
During the attempt to resolve the crisis through diplomatic means, generals on both sides advocated to their respective leaders, US President Kennedy and Soviet Premier Nikita Krueschev, that their side should invade and/or launch a first strike against their adversary.
Maniacs on both sides argued that they could WIN a nuclear exchange with “acceptable” losses (in the 10s or 100s of millions.)
Fortunately for the world, neither leader was willing to risk the future of the human species and a diplomatic solution was achieved. In the end, missiles were removed from Cuba, Italy, and Turkey, and the war between the East and West resumed its “cold” status.
This period of time is widely considered to be the closest the world ever came to thermonuclear conflict.
The USSR ceased to exist in 1991, and in the intervening years, NATO has expanded its membership to many of the former Warsaw Pact countries, some on modern Russia’s border. With NATO membership comes troops, military hardware, and missile installations.
Citing these facts, Russia invaded Ukraine in violation of international law on Feb. 24, 2022. Their stated reasons are to prevent Ukraine’s membership in NATO and, with that, first strike capability against Moscow.
In the days since, the West has poured money and weapons into Ukraine while the Russians have activated, for the first time, their nuclear deterrent force. This means their land based installations, warships, and nuclear subs around the world are at the highest alert. Additionally, Russia has threatened Finland and Sweden with military action if they seriously consider joining NATO.
Russian forces have secured the Chernobyl containment area, while heavy fighting has been reported around other nuclear waste storage installations in Ukraine, raising the possibility of nuclear contamination as the fighting intensifies. Moreover, “tactical” nuclear weapons with supposed low yield and limited blast radii make the calculations for whether to launch a nuclear attack seemingly less consequential. But once the nuclear genie is let out of the bottle, it’s impossible to put it back.
This invasion and subsequent escalations constitute the highest threat of nuclear conflict the world has faced since 1962…a sort of Cuban Missile Crisis in reverse.
Many in our country and across the West are advocating for direct confrontation with Russia. So far, cooler heads are prevailing. Our planet is on the precipice, once again, of a species threatening conflict. I am optimistic that such calamity will be avoided, though war has ways of taking on a life of its own.
Let’s hope leaders on both sides of this conflict are able to exercise the restraint needed to avoid devastating escalation and can find ways to work together in good faith to achieve peace and, eventually, put the threat of nuclear war behind us forever.
